StatSystems Sports NFL Report, Sunday 12/26/10
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/26
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••• DOLFANS, WE FEEL YA! •••
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As longtime suffering Cleveland Browns fans, this year’s Miami bunch is bringing back unpleasant memories of ‘The Drive’ and ‘The Fumble’. When they hit the road (6-1 SU) they give you ‘HIGH HOPES’, but when you watch them in person (1-6 SU) they’re like the little ant you step on. "With their coach (Tony Sparano) 10-14 SU and 7-17 ATS at home, including 1-7 ATS versus sub .500 visitors and their starting QB (Chad Henne) 0-7 SU in his last seven home starts, do you really want to lay points this afternoon with this bunch!"
We don’t... especially with the fish freshly eliminated and sporting an 0-4 ATS mark in Last Home Games. We’d love to snap the rubber band with the Lions and call for the outright victory but let’s not forget that those bastards just snapped an INGLORIOUS' 26-game road losing skid last weekend in Tampa and haven’t fried the Fish (0-5 SU) since 1991. However, we’ll go along for the current ride as the Motowners are 6-1 ATS off a win versus an AFC foe off a SU and ATS loss. "Keep a close eye on this stat as it applies to next week as well... Under 'Tuff Tony , the host in Miami’s final four scuffles of the season is a winless 0-10 ATS!"
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***** SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26TH NFL INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• 2-MINUTE DRILL
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--Detroit 6-1 off SU win vs non conf opp off SUATS loss (1-0 this year)... 1-6 dogs 7 < pts off SU dog win (1-0 this year)... 3-12 O/U Game Fifteen
--MIAMI SERIES: 4-0 L4... 1-9 vs < .500 opp off SU win... 1-7 off SUATS div loss vs < .500 opp... SPARANO: 2-9 fav vs non div opp... 2-8 O/U Game Fifteen
--Minnesota DEC: 7-1 off div w/rev vs opp off SU win... 6-1 bef Lions (0-1 this year)... 2-7 vs .500 > opp off SU dog win (1-1 this year)... 1-3 UNDER after Bears
--PHILADELPHIA SERIES: 10-1 L11/6-0 L6 H... 8-0 aft RG vs Giants... DEC: 1-8 favs 8 > pts... 2-8 favs > 7 pts off BB SU wins... 1-6 UNDER after Giants
--Washington SERIES: 3-1 L4... DEC: 11-1-1 dogs off SU loss vs opp w/rev (1-0-1 this year)... DEC: 14-2 < .500 A off SU loss (1-0 this year)... 6-1 A off BB ATS wins... 8-2 bef Giants (0-1 this year)... 1-8-1 vs opp w/rev off DD SU loss (0-1 this year)
--JACKSONVILLE DEC: 12-2 vs opp off BB SU losses (1-0 this year)... 1-11 favs 6 > pts vs opp off SU road loss... 1-6 HF's vs opp in 2nd BB RG's (1-0 this year)... 2-10 Game Fifteen
--San Francisco SERIES: 5-1 L6 A... 8-0 div RD's 9 < pts... 4-0 aft scoring 10 < pts vs opp off SU fav loss... 9-1 A off DD ATS & any SU loss vs div opp (1-0 this year)... 4-1 SU Game Fifteen
--ST. LOUIS 7-0 Last Home Game if .400 >... 2-8 H off DD SU loss vs opp off SUATS loss (1-1 this year)... 1-4 SU Game Fifteen... SPAGNUOLO: 8-1 off SUATS loss vs < .500 opp (3-0 this year)
--Seattle SERIES: 4-1 L5/4-0 L4 A... DEC: 8-2 < .500 dogs < 7 pts (0-1 this year)... 15-3 off BB SU losses (2-0 this year)... 1-4 O/U Game Fifteen
--TAMPA BAY 9-0 H off SUATS loss vs opp off BB SU losses... 8-0 conf favs 4 > pts off SU fav loss... DEC: 7-1 vs opp off DD SU home loss... 2-6 Game Fifteen... MORRIS: 2-11-1 H
--New England SERIES: 6-0 L6 A... 8-1 div RF's 4 > pts... 1-10 L11 .850 >... 2-10 favs 8 > pts off NFC opp... 3-9 UNDER L12 away vs Bills
--BUFFALO 0-12 off SUATS div win vs .500 > div opp... 1-8 H vs div opp off BB fav roles... 1-6 Last Home Game... 1-5 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU win (1-0 this year)... 5-1 O/U Game Fifteen
--NY Jets 7-1 off SU dog win (2-0 this year)... 1-3 O/U Game Fifteen... 4-1 OVER 2nd of BB RG’s
--CHICAGO SERIES: 3-1 L4... 5-0 SU Game Fifteen... 1-4-1 L6 as favs... 6-1 OVER off Monday gm
--Baltimore SERIES: 4-1 L5... 3-1 Game Fifteen... 0-7 A off BB SU wins & scored 30 > pts BB... 1-9 RF's off BB SU wins... HARBAUGH: 8-2 off SU win vs opp off SUATS loss (0-1 this year)
--CLEVELAND 8-1 w/rev vs .600 > div opp off SU win (1-0 this year)... 12-3 aft Bengals (0-1 this year)... 6-2 dogs 6 < pts bef Steelers (0-1 this year)... DEC: 1-8 < .500 vs .600 > opp off non div... 1-6 SU Game Fifteen
--Tennessee SERIES: 3-0 L3 A... DEC: 10-1 off SU div win vs opp off SUATS win... 10-1 dogs off DD ATS win (0-1 this year)... 12-3 dogs vs opp w/rev (1-2 this year)
--KANSAS CITY DEC: 9-2 HF's vs opp off fav role (0-1 this year)... DEC: 8-2 H w/rev off non div (0-1 this year)... 4-1 Game Fifteen... 0-11 HF's 5 > pts off SU dog win... 0-8 off SU road win vs < .500 opp off SU win... 1-5 vs non div opp off DD SU win... HALEY: 2-6 H vs < .500 opp
--Indianapolis 7-0 conf RF's < 7 pts off DD SU win (1-0 this year)... 6-1 O/U Game Fifteen
--OAKLAND SERIES: 5-1 L6/3-0 L3 H... 8-0 H off DD SU win w/rev (2-0 this year)... 7-1 w/rev vs opp off BB SU wins (2-0 this year)... DEC: 1-12 dogs off div vs non div opp (0-1 this year)... 1-6 SU Game Fifteen... CABLE: 2-9 off div
--Houston 13-2 2nd BB RG's (1-0 this year)... 0-4 off div RG vs opp off BB SU losses... 0-6 off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SU loss (0-1 this year)... 2-7 favs vs opp w/rev (1-1 this year)... 4-0 O/U Game Fifteen
--DENVER DEC: 8-1 vs opp off DD div ATS loss... 0-3 SU Game Fifteen
--NY Giants 21-6 away off home vs .500 > foe off ATS win w/ rev... 4-1 O/U Game Fifteen... 1-5 UNDER away vs NFC North
--GREEN BAY 14-4 SU Game Fifteen... 3-11 H vs opp w/rev off SU loss (1-2 this year)... MCCARTHY: 8-1 .500 > dog 2nd BB non div
--San Diego SERIES: 7-3 L10/3-0 L3 A... 3-0 Game Fifteen... DEC: 13-3 A off BB SU wins... 2-5 aft allowing 10 < pts vs non div opp (1-0 this year)
--CINCINNATI 0-3 O/U Game Fifteen... 1-8 H vs non div opp off SU win (1-1 this year)
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*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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• #105 LIONS (4-10) @ #106 DOLPHINS (7-7) - Detroit is 11-3 vs spread this year, 5-2 as road dog, losing away games by 5-14-8-2-16 points; they broke 3-year road losing streak in Tampa last week, now visit Miami squad that is 1-6 at home this year (6-1 on road). Dolphins are 0-5 as home favorite this year; dogs covered all seven of their home games, with Fish scoring 0-10-14 points in last three home tilts. Lions are 2-7 in series, losing all four visits here by average score of 36-20. This is only 4th grass game of year for Lions, who lost by 5-2 points, and won by 3 in OT in three previous games on grass. AFC East home favorites are just 5-9-1 vs spread in non-division games. NFC North road dogs are 9-5-1. Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 Detroit games, 2-6 in last eight Miami games.
• #107 VIKINGS (5-9) @ #108 EAGLES (10-4) - America is clamoring for more Joe Webb, so NBC flexed out of Charger-Bengal game into this, probably hoping Favre would play, which he won’t. Minnesota lost last two games by combined score of 61-17; over last six games, they’ve been outscored 70-27 in second half, a sign of team in tank. Vikings are 1-5-1 vs. spread as an underdog this year. Eagles are off pair of NFC East wins with Cowboy rematch on deck; they’re 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home fave, with home wins by 14-2-10-10 points. NFC East favorites are 7-10 vs spread outside the division, 5-8 at home; NFC North underdogs are 11-7-1, 9-5-1 on road. Nine of last ten Eagle games went over total. Given chance to hammer Vikings, Reid probably will, seeing as they fired his buddy Childress.
• #109 REDSKINS (5-9) @ #110 JAGUARS (8-6) - How will host Jags bounce back from another disappointment at hands of Colts, who now win AFC South by beating Raiders/Titans in last two games? Grossman played well enough in Dallas last week (25-43/286), but odd way they’ve shunned McNabb points to fractured team. Inexperienced Beck expected to see some time at QB here, for Skin squad that is in sandwich between rivals Dallas/Giants, and is 4-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-12-24-3 points (won at Philly/Chicago). Jags are 8-6 despite being favored only four times all year; they’re 5-2 in last seven games, 4-0 vs spread as favorite. Over is 6-2 in Jags’ last eight games, 1-4 in Redskins’ last five. Redskins won three of four series meetings, splitting pair here.
• #111 49ERS (5-9) @ #112 RAMS (6-8) - Niners won last five series games, taking 23-20 OT flagfest (26 accepted penalties) in Candlestick (-6) in Week 10, when Rams couldn’t hold late lead (SF got 1st down after having 3rd-and-32 on game-tying drive). Starting with that game, Rams are 22 for last 85 on 3rd down (25.9%); failure to move chains, improve field position has put too much strain on defense. Rams are 4-3 at home, 2-1 as favorite, but they haven’t scored first half TD in last three games; hopefully return of injured TE Hoomanawanui will help- he was last active in Denver, when they scored 36 points. 49ers are 1-6 in true road games, even losing at 2-14 Carolina. St Louis has thinnest of leads in NFC West; Niners are still alive with win here.
• #113 SEAHAWKS (6-8) @ #114 BUCCANEERS (8-6) - Seattle is still tied for first in NFC West, even though all eight of its losses are by 15+ points; Seahawks are 2-4 as road underdogs this year. Bucs lost three of last four games, with last three decided by total of 8 points- they’re 1-2-2 vs as a favorite. Tampa needs Packers to beat Giants and win here to tie for Wild Card slot; they’re just 3-4 at home, winning by 3-1-15 points. Seattle threw eight INTs in last three games; they’re minus-10 in turnovers last four games. In their last two games, Bucs have no TDs, four FGs on five trips to red zone. Seahawks won four of five visits here; average total in last seven series meetings is 23.7. That said, Seattle’s last seven games this year went over total. NFC West road underdogs are 6-11 outside the division.
• #115 PATRIOTS (10-4) @ #116 BILLS (4-10) - Pats clinch NFC East with win here or Jet loss in Chicago; they’ve won 14 in row vs Buffalo, taking last six here by 14-28-22-46-13-7 points. NE won first meeting this year 38-30 (-14) in Week 3, running ball for 200 yards, but Buffalo averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempts in that game, their 3rd-best mark this year. Bills are 4-2 in last six games after 0-8 start; they’re 6-2-1 vs. spread in last nine games overall, outscoring last five foes 68-20 in second half. Patriots scored 31+ points in each of last six games, winning last three on road by 13-21-29 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Last eight New England games went over total; under is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last eight games.
• #117 JETS (10-4) @ #118 BEARS (10-4) - Rex Ryan against team his dad helped win Super Bowl 25 years ago; Bears clinched division with win Monday night, but are in scrap with Eagles for #2 seed and first-round bye, which is big- they’ve won six of last seven games, but are just 4-3 at home, 0-3 as home favorites. Chicago outscored last three opponents 40-13 in second half. Jets are pretty much locked into Wild Card, but haven’t clinched yet; they’re 6-1 on road, with all seven road games going over total. Chicago is 6-3 in series, 3-2 in games played here. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 10-3. Five of last seven Jet games went over the total, as have last four Chicago games.
• #119 RAVENS (10-4) @ #120 BROWNS (5-9) - Anytime Ravens (formerly Browns) return to Cleveland, there’s venom in air; they beat Cleveland 24-17 (-10.5) in first meeting, despite Browns running ball for 173 yards (2nd-highest total of year), in their 5th straight series loss. Ravens are 7-4 on Lake Erie, winning last two years, 37-27/16-0. Last four Raven games have been very close; they’re 4-3 on road, winning last two away games 37-13/34-28. Last six Cleveland games were all decided by 7 or less points; Browns are 5-6-1 as underdogs, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 2-10-6 points. League-wide, home dogs are 18-12-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-1 in AFC North. Browns’ last three games all stayed under the total.
• #121 TITANS (6-8) @ #122 CHIEFS (9-5) - Road team won last three series games; Chiefs split only two visits here, with last one back in ’04. Titans snapped 6-game skid last week; they’ve lost last three road games by 8-12-20 points, after starting season 3-0 on road. Chiefs got Cassel back under center last week; they’ve won last four games he played, and are 6-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, with wins by 7-21-22-3-18-4 points. KC needs to keep winning to stay step ahead of San Diego in AFC West, while Titans technically are still alive in their division; Fisher is using OC Heimerdinger (cancer) as an inspiration of how not to quit. Despite undergoing chemo, Heimerdinger hasn’t missed one day of work since he was diagnosed with cancer.
• #123 COLTS (8-6) @ #124 RAIDERS (7-7) - Oakland is 5-0 in its division, 2-7 outside it; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Texans by 7, Dolphins by 16. Colts scored 35-30-34 points last three weeks, as prolific Manning continues to amaze; after tossing 11 INTs in 3-game stretch, Colts haven’t turned ball over last two weeks, can now win AFC South if they win this game and beat Titans at home next week. Raiders want to pound ball; they’ve run it for 251-153-264 yards in last three games, scoring average of 32.7 ppg. Colts allowed 24+ points in six of seven road games; they’re 3-4 on road, 1-3-1 as road favorite. AFC West underdogs are 7-11 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-3 at home. AFC South favorites are 9-9-2, 2-1-2 on road. Four of last five Indy games went over the total.
• #125 TEXANS (5-9) @ #126 BRONCOS (3-11) - Both sides sinking here; Texans lost last three games, allowing 33 ppg (gave up 11 TDs on last 30 drives), outscored 65-20 in first half of those games- they’ve lost last five road games. Denver lost last five games (1-4 vs. spread), converting just 10 of last 60 on 3rd down; they’re 2-4 at home, but did score 82 points in last two home games. League-wide, home underdogs in non-divisional games are 18-19-3. Six of last seven Texan games went over total, as did three of last four Bronco games. Houston coach Kubiak came to Texans from Broncos, could he be returning as Denver HC if Houston fires him? First home start for Tebow, who did OK in starting debut last week. Not much to choose from on either side, except maybe the over. Check weather.
• #127 GIANTS (9-5) @ #128 PACKERS (9-5) - Huge game with #6 seed in NFC up for grabs; how do Giants bounce back from last week’s debacle, blowing 31-10 lead at home in last 8:00 in pivotal division rivalry game? First series meeting since Giants won NFC title game in OT here three years ago; road team won last five series games-- Giants won last two visits here. Packers lost last two games, both by 4 points; they’re 5-1 at home, 4-2 as home favorite, winning by 27-2-4-38-18 points (lost to Miami in OT). Giants are 4-2 on road, 2-2 as underdog; all four of their losses are by 7+ points. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Giant games stayed under total. Does Rodgers come back for Packers, and if so, how effective is he?
• #129 CHARGERS (8-6) @ #130 BENGALS (3-11) - San Diego needs two wins and a KC loss to make playoffs; they’ve won six of last seven games, scoring 29+ points in wins- they allowed only one TD on last 18 drives with 10 3/outs. Since halftime of loss to Raiders, they’ve outscored opponents 75-14 in last 10 quarters. Bengals snapped 10-game skid last week, running ball for 188 yards, their most this year by 39 yards. Cincy covered in only two of 11 losses this year, even though six of its 11 losses are by 7 or less points- they’re 3-5 as an underdog, 2-1 at home. AFC West favorites are 10-8, 2-3 on road. AFC North underdogs are 8-9-2. 3-2 at home. Last five Charger games, three of last four Bengal games stayed under total.
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• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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The Kansas City Chiefs hold a precarious one-game advantage over ‘FAST-CHARGING’ San Diego in the AFC West knowing the Bolts hold the tie-breaker in the event they finish the season with identical records. Hence, look for Arrowhead to become a burial ground the next two weeks. They are 16-7 ATS here during the final four confrontations of the season when hosting opponents off a win. The Titans snapped a 6-game losing skid with its win over the Texans in their Last Home Game last weekend and now take to the road off a three-game homestand.
As our 'AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK’ points out: PLAY AGAINST - Any NFL road team from Game Ten out following three straight home games if they are off a double-digit win and are facing a sub .690 non-division opponent. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 17-3-2 (85%). This is not a good role for teams taking to the highway, especially ones that have been outstatted in six of their previous seven affairs. "Our Rock-Solid database is in a holiday spirit and lends this Christmas gift: Game Fifteen outfits off a SU underdog victory are a 'SENSATIONAL' 34-9 ATS (79.1%) at home since 1980 when seeking revenge!"
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• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
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Colts control their playoff destiny following last weekend’s victory over the Jaguars and a win here today puts them on firm footing. The problem, though, is they’ve dropped four straight tussles in this series (0-3-1 ATS) and they travel as road favorites with the leagues’ 2nd worst rush defense (4.7 DYPR). Not to mention they check in as our 'NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK' which tells us to: PLAY ON - Any NFL Game Fifteen Home underdog of 4 or less points off a win in its Last Home Game of the season. ATS W-L Record 18-4-1, (81.8%) Since 1980.
That’s clearly a flag-raiser considering the Raiders own the NFL’s best ground attack (4.9 OYPR). Coupled with Oakland’s 7-1 ATS mark as a home underdog with revenge, and its 9-2 ATS record at home with revenge off a double-digit win, it makes for a precarious situation, to say the least. "So does Peyton’s 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS career mark as a road favorite with a winning record against AFC West opposition!"
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
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Who would have believed that Tampa would own a winning record playing in the competitive NFC South while the Seahawks would be below sea level in the laughable NFC West! What we’re really not sure of, though, is which Seattle or Tampa outfit will show up this afternoon in the Big Sombrero. Thus, we’ll turn to our Stat/Systems Sports database for some answers and it clearly has us heading west. For starters, the Seahawks are a perfect 4-0 ATS on this field. Seattle is also at its best on the road off a loss this year, posting a 2-0 SU and ATS record. The coffee crew is also an 'INCREDIBLE' 15-5 SU and 16-3-1 ATS (84.2%) off back-to-back losses versus a foe off a SU loss. Meanwhile, the Bucs are just 1-8 SU and ATS in Last Home Games since 2001. And like the aforementioned 'Tuff Tony Sparano (above), it’s best to back the visitor this time of year in scuffles involving Tampa HC Raheem Morris. "Under Morris, the host in Buccaneers’ encounters is 0-5-1 ATS in the final quarter of the season!"
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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Don’t look now but the (5-9) 49ers are just two victories and a Seattle loss this weekend from claiming the NFC West title. With Jacksonville, San Diego, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and the Giants fighting for their playoff lives at 8-6 or better, it just doesn’t seem fair. (Maybe it’s time to get the BCS involved!) One person who will be heavily involved in today’s outcome is San Fran HC Mike Singletary and we’ll draw on Iron Mike’s 10-4-2 ATS log as an underdog, including 6-0-1 ATS off a loss. It’s also hard to look past Frisco’s 'AMAZING’ 8-0 ATS mark as a division road dog of 9 or less points. One number that won’t get by us here this afternoon is Louie’s 'BRUTAL' 0-14 SU and 4-10 ATS record in the final four confrontations of the season since 2006, or its 3-14 ATS log as division favorites since 2003. "Slinging Sam Bradford and his baby-faced assassins have certainly been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2010 season but their 3-16 SU and ATS mark at home off a double-digit loss versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS versus a division opponent, suggests they’re a year away!"
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As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** DETROIT @ MIAMI (-3.5, O/U 41.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: You get the feeling that Detroit’s enjoying Florida more than the Dolphins. A week ago, the Lions upset the Bucs in Tampa, snapping a 26-game road losing streak. Meanwhile, the Dolphins dropped a home game to the Bills to drop to 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS at home this year. Miami continues to struggle on offense, while kicker Dan Carpenter went 0-for-4 (granted, they were all 48 and beyond) on field goal attempts. The Lions have looked just fine under third-string quarterback Drew Stanton. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Miami is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. Detroit (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season.
--MIAMI is 13-27 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
--DETROIT is 4-15 ATS away off a upset win as an underdog since 1992.
--DETROIT is 5-17 ATS away after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
--DETROIT is 6-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
(32-10 since 1983.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA (-14.5, O/U 41.5 ) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Eagles carry some momentum from their superb second half against the Giants, and they can put away the NFC East with a victory against a Vikings team that’s limping to the finish line. There’s no telling whether Brett Favre or Joe Webb (or Patrick Ramsey) will be under center for the Vikes. Whoever it is will have their hands full against the blitz happy Eagles. Philly’s speedy receiving corps also matches up particularly well against Minnesota’s cornerbacks. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Philadelphia is 2-0 ATS (2-0 SU) vs. Minnesota (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--PHILA is 8-0 ATS after road game where both teams scored 24+ points over L3 seasons.
--PHILA is 9-1 OVER after the first month of the season this season.
--PHILA is 13-2 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 13-2 OVER away vs. teams scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 21-7 OVER away vs. teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 22-8 OVER vs. teams scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Any team vs the 1rst half line - after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points.
(40-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE (-7, O/U 46.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Rex Grossman Experience is likely to continue in Jacksonville, a second straight soft pass defense for the maligned vet (he threw for 322 yards and 4 TDs, as well as 2 INTs, in Dallas last week). After all sorts of problems at home last season, the Jags are 5-2 SU and ATS at EverBank Field, including three straight wins. They have the offensive diversity to beat a weak Redskins defense that could be without top pass rusher Brian Orakpo. Series History - Last 5 seasons: Jacksonville is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Washington (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 9-2 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
--JACKSONVILLE is 44-21 OVER after having won 4 or 5 out of last 6 games since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 32-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 55-35 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS after gaining 75 or less rush yards last game over L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS (-3, O/U 39) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Amazingly, this game could decide who gets a home playoff game. The Niners and Rams looked like teams with losing records last week, each getting pasted by an AFC West team. They went to overtime in their first meeting, a seesaw battle in San Fran where the Niners outgained the Rams by nearly 100 yards. San Francisco is unsettled under quarterback yet again, as Mike Singletary is unlikely to announce a starter between Alex and Troy Smith until late in the week. San Fran is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road. Series History - Last 5 seasons: ST Louis is 3-8 ATS (2-9 SU) vs. San Francisco (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--ST LOUIS is 1-13 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 8-26 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
--SAN FRAN is 9-1 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 10-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 6-0 ATS in dome games over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Road teams - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)
________________________________________________
*** SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY (-6, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Both these teams are still in the playoff hunt. Tampa has been the superior team this year, but they’re coming off a bad home loss to Detroit and have been up and down at home all season. They’re just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS at home. Seattle is as bad as ever of late, and now they’re undecided at QB after another horrible performance by Matt Hasselbeck. They do match up well defensively with Tampa, as Brandon Mebane and Colin Cole anchor a strong run D. Seattle is 3-12 SU and ATS on the road over the past two years. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Tampa Bay is 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) vs. Seattle (0-2 ATS, 1-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--TAMPA is 2-11 ATS in home lined games over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 1-10 ATS at home when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 2-11 ATS at home in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 2-11 ATS after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 7-0 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points this season.
--SEATTLE is 7-0 OVER in the second half of the season this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Home favorites - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(32-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** NEW ENGLAND (-7.5, O/U 44) @ BUFFALO ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Patriots got a bit of a wake up call last week against the shorthanded Packers, just in time for another trap game in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t beaten New England since Week 1 of the 2003 season, but they’ve managed to go 2-0-1 ATS in their past three games against the Pats. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be able to take advantage of a young Patriots defense that hasn’t completely gelled. The Bills also have a decent enough secondary to at least hang on against Tom Brady and Company. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Buffalo is 4-6 ATS (0-11 SU) vs. New England (0-4 ATS, 0-5 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--BUFFALO is 29-8 ATS after a win by 3 or less points since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 14-2 OVER at home vs. teams w/ TO margin of +1/game or better since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 15-4 OVER after covering the spread in 4 out of last 5 games since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER off 1 or more straight overs this season.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER after gaining 6+ yds/play in their previous game this year.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER after having won 5 or 6 out of last 7 games this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
________________________________________________
*** NY JETS @ CHICAGO (-1, O/U 36.5) ***
------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: The Jets are looking to make it two straight on the road over winning teams. Gang Green recovered a little bit of momentum thanks to their special teams last week. Brad Smith opened the game with a kickoff return touchdown, though the Jets offense has scored just one offensive touchdown since Thanksgiving. The Bears don’t have the kind of offense to take on the Jets defense. They’ve scored just 45 points in three games against AFC East opponents this year. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Chicago is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. NY Jets (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 16-4 UNDER vs. teams averaging 24+ yds/KO return in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 47-28 UNDER in non-conference games since 1992.
--Lovie Smith is 10-3 ATS vs. teams averaging 32+ possession min/gm as coach of CHICAGO.
--NY JETS are 8-1 ATS away in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons.
--NY JETS are 6-0 OVER away vs. defenses allowing comp. pct. of 61% or worse this year.
--NY JETS are 54-32 UNDER after failing to cover in 2 out of last 3 games since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%),in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 4*)
__________________________________________________
*** BALTIMORE (-3, O/U 39) @ CLEVELAND ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The latest installment of the Modell Bowl will feature the Ravens as favorites again. Baltimore has won the past five match-ups with the Browns, but their September meeting in Cleveland was an adventure. The game was the coming out party for Peyton Hillis, and the Ravens just held on for a 24-17 win. They won’t be taken by surprise by Hillis this time, and Cleveland doesn’t have the perimeter threats to take advantage of Baltimore’s thin secondary (of Colt McCoy’s 243 yards in Cincinnati last week, only 99 went to WRs). Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cleveland is 6-5 ATS (3-8 SU) vs. Baltimore (3-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 52-33 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
--CLEVELAND is 8-1 UNDER after failing to cover in 3 out of last 4 games over L3 seasons.
--Eric Mangini is 14-4 UNDER in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
--BALTIMORE is 11-2 ATS when playing team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 26-13 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 40-24 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off a road loss, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY (-4.5, O/U 42.5) ***
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: Both these teams seem to be getting back on track. The Titans snapped a six-game losing streak against Houston, and have won two in a row ATS. They’ve played much better since Kerry Collins returned to the lineup. The Chiefs got back to business with Matt Cassel back under center in St. Louis, and they return home where they’re 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS this season. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Kansas City is 0-2 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. Tennessee (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--K.C. is 9-1 ATS vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the L3 seasons.
--K.C. is 32-50 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
--K.C. is 22-10 OVER vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 13-2 ATS away off a home win against a division rival since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 19-6 ATS after failing to cover in 5 or 6 out of last 7 games since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 19-7 ATS off a home win against a division rival since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games.
(52-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +28.9 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** INDIANAPOLIS (-3, O/U 47) @ OAKLAND ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Colts can move closer to clinching the AFC South, but they’re in for a major test in Oakland. The Raiders are 5-2 SU at home this year and have had one of the best pass defenses in the league when Nnamdi Asomugha has been healthy. With the exception of a couple of big Donald Brown runs last week, Indy hasn’t had much of a running game all year. The Colts have also been susceptible against the run, and Oakland has one of the strongest running games in the NFL. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Oakland is 1-0 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Indianapolis (1-0 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--OAKLAND is 29-60 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS at home after gaining 6.5+ yards/play in previous game since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS at home after gaining 7+ yards/play in previous game since 1992.
--INDY is 9-1 ATS vs. teams averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the L2 seasons.
--INDY is 14-3 ATS away after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.
--INDY is 16-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line - off a home win against a division rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more.
(23-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** HOUSTON (-3, O/U 48.5) @ DENVER ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: It could be a second straight start for Tim Tebow, who impressed with his legs but wasn’t given much of a chance with his arm last week in Oakland. Denver’s defense might not give them much of a chance, as they’ve allowed 82 points in two games under Eric Studesville and are 2-4 SU and ATS at home this year. The Texans looked deflated in losing in Tennessee last week, and now top rusher Arian Foster could miss this game with an ankle injury. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Denver is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Houston (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--DENVER is 2-16 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 3-19 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 0-9 ATS at home against a team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS after the first month of the season this season.
--HOUSTON is 9-0 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points over the L3 seasons.
--HOUSTON is 6-0 OVER away when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(37-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.1%, +29.3 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY (-3, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Packers and Giants are feeling much different after Week 15 losses. The Giants choked away a key game against Philly with a couple of major special teams gaffes and a failure in all phases of the game. They have been good on the road this year, winning four of their past five SU and ATS. Green Bay was close with New England with back-up QB Matt Flynn under center (and looking shaky on many throws). There’s a good chance they’ll have Aaron Rodgers back. They’re 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 home games. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Green Bay is 1-1 ATS (1-1 SU) vs. NY Giants (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--GREEN BAY is 46-29 ATS vs. teams w/ winning record in 2nd half of season since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS at home vs. teams allowing >= 12 yards per return since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 45-26 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 19-5 ATS after game where 60+ total points were scored since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 15-4 ATS away against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 27-11 ATS away vs. teams with a comp. pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(35-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** SAN DIEGO (-7, O/U 44) @ CINCINNATI ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Chargers have a chance to keep rolling when they visit Cincinnati. The Bengals beat Cleveland at home this week, but lost top receiver Terrell Owens to a season-ending knee injury. They’ll be facing a San Diego D that has been outstanding against the run and the pass this year, and has an extra three days of rest. The Chargers have let a few games slip away because of sloppy play and special teams mistakes, but the Bengals are the sloppiest, most undisciplined team in the league. They’re unlikely to catch the Bolts napping. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cincinnati is 1-1 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. San Diego (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 11-24 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 20-8 OVER at home vs. teams allowing <=4.75 yards/play since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 16-5 OVER vs. teams allowing <=4.75 yds/play in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 21-6 ATS after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-8 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(35-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*)
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• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Against the Spread Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________
4* WASHINGTON +7 - (83.3%)
4* SAN FRANCISCO +3 - (82.9%)
4* TENNESSEE +4.5 - (82.4%)
3* INDIANAPOLIS -3 - (76.9%)
3* DENVER +3 - (73.9%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (12-18 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average score in these games was: Team 18.7, Opponent 17.9 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (36.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (49-18).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (ST LOUIS) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(29-6 since 1983.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (22-14)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8
The average score in these games was: Team 20.2, Opponent 18.4 (Average point differential = +1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.
(28-6 since 1983.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-18)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 17, Opponent 19.5 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (44.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) - with a poor defense - allowing 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.
(30-9 since 1983.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-7)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.4
The average score in these games was: Team 29.8, Opponent 19 (Average point differential = +10.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (48.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(51-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +31.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (27-42 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.3
The average score in these games was: Team 18.7, Opponent 22.5 (Average point differential = -3.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (43.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-15).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (77-44).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (171-155).
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• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Over/Under Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________
5* NY GIANTS/GREEN BAY UNDER 43.5 - (83.3%)
4* SAN FRANCISCO/ST LOUIS OVER 39 - (82.8%)
4* WASHINGTON/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 46.5 - (81.6%)
4* NEW ENGLAND/BUFFALO UNDER 44 - (80.0%)
4* HOUSTON/DENVER OVER 48.5 - (79.5%)
3* SAN DIEGO/CINCINNATI OVER 44 - (78.6%)
3* INDIANAPOLIS/OAKLAND UNDER 47 - (78.0%)
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - off 2 consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.8
The average score in these games was: Team 22.8, Opponent 16.4 (Total points scored = 39.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game.
(24-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39
The average score in these games was: Team 22.9, Opponent 23.8 (Total points scored = 46.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (54-40).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.
(31-7 since 1983.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 44.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22.1, Opponent 17.6 (Total points scored = 39.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (45.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog.
(32-8 since 1983.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.5
The average score in these games was: Team 19.7, Opponent 18.7 (Total points scored = 38.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (HOUSTON) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(31-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 43.2
The average score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 25.2 (Total points scored = 50.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (53.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-39).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games.
(33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.2
The average score in these games was: Team 28.4, Opponent 26.9 (Total points scored = 55.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 20 (48.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - excellent rushing team (>=150 RY/G) against a poor rushing defense (125-150 RY/G) after 8+ games, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game.
(32-9 since 1983.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 42.6
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 18 (Total points scored = 37.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (44.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* DENVER +1.5 - (83.9%)
4* KANSAS CITY -2.5 - (80.6%)
3* NEW ENGLAND -4 - (78.7%)
3* TAMPA BAY -3 - (78.6%)
3* ST LOUIS -1.5 - (77.8%)
3* GREEN BAY -1.5 - (77.8%)
3* JACKSONVILLE -3.5 - (74.3%)
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.9, Opponent 7.8 (Average first half point differential = +5.1)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (86-50).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) after 8 or more games, after allowing 14 points or less last game.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.7, Opponent 5.9 (Average first half point differential = +9.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (BUFFALO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a upset win as an underdog.
(37-10 since 1983.) (78.7%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.5, Opponent 6.4 (Average first half point differential = +8.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SEATTLE) - off 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14, Opponent 5.6 (Average first half point differential = +8.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - a poor offensive team (<=18 PPG) against an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 9 points or less last game.
(28-8 since 1983.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.2, Opponent 9 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NY GIANTS) - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(35-10 since 1983.) (77.8%, +24 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.1, Opponent 5.7 (Average first half point differential = +9.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (JACKSONVILLE) - good rushing team (>=4.5 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR) after 8+ games.
(55-19 since 1983.) (74.3%, +34.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16, Opponent 7.9 (Average first half point differential = +8.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-12).
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* SAN DIEGO/CINCINNATI OVER 22 - (88.9%)
4* SEATTLE/TAMPA BAY OVER 22 - (85.7%)
4* TENNESSEE/KANSAS CITY OVER 21.5 - (85.7%)
4* HOUSTON/DENVER OVER 24.5 - (85.7%)
4* NY GIANTS/GREEN BAY OVER 21.5 - (85.7%)
3* NY JETS/CHICAGO OVER 18.5 - (78.1%)
3* BALTIMORE/CLEVELAND OVER 19.5 - (72.5%)
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (SAN DIEGO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(24-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.2, Opponent 10.7 (Total first half points scored = 26.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-25).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (SEATTLE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (TENNESSEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NY GIANTS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CHICAGO) - off 3 or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG).
(25-7 since 1983.) (78.1%, +17.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 10.3 (Total first half points scored = 23.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (BALTIMORE) - good passing team (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(50-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.1, Opponent 12.2 (Total first half points scored = 26.3)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (98-62).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
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STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/26
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL *****
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When you are ready to step up an into the challenge of advanced sports handicapping, be sure to check out Stan 'The Man's ALL NEW Stat/Systems Sheets. They are loaded with power ratings, computer predictions, matchups, betting trends, systems, statistics, schedules and results. Once you have sampled my Stat/Systems Sheets, you will no longer need free picks, consensus plays, or other professional handicapping services!
Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• DOLFANS, WE FEEL YA! •••
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As longtime suffering Cleveland Browns fans, this year’s Miami bunch is bringing back unpleasant memories of ‘The Drive’ and ‘The Fumble’. When they hit the road (6-1 SU) they give you ‘HIGH HOPES’, but when you watch them in person (1-6 SU) they’re like the little ant you step on. "With their coach (Tony Sparano) 10-14 SU and 7-17 ATS at home, including 1-7 ATS versus sub .500 visitors and their starting QB (Chad Henne) 0-7 SU in his last seven home starts, do you really want to lay points this afternoon with this bunch!"
We don’t... especially with the fish freshly eliminated and sporting an 0-4 ATS mark in Last Home Games. We’d love to snap the rubber band with the Lions and call for the outright victory but let’s not forget that those bastards just snapped an INGLORIOUS' 26-game road losing skid last weekend in Tampa and haven’t fried the Fish (0-5 SU) since 1991. However, we’ll go along for the current ride as the Motowners are 6-1 ATS off a win versus an AFC foe off a SU and ATS loss. "Keep a close eye on this stat as it applies to next week as well... Under 'Tuff Tony , the host in Miami’s final four scuffles of the season is a winless 0-10 ATS!"
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
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***** SUNDAY, DECEMBER 26TH NFL INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• 2-MINUTE DRILL
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--Detroit 6-1 off SU win vs non conf opp off SUATS loss (1-0 this year)... 1-6 dogs 7 < pts off SU dog win (1-0 this year)... 3-12 O/U Game Fifteen
--MIAMI SERIES: 4-0 L4... 1-9 vs < .500 opp off SU win... 1-7 off SUATS div loss vs < .500 opp... SPARANO: 2-9 fav vs non div opp... 2-8 O/U Game Fifteen
--Minnesota DEC: 7-1 off div w/rev vs opp off SU win... 6-1 bef Lions (0-1 this year)... 2-7 vs .500 > opp off SU dog win (1-1 this year)... 1-3 UNDER after Bears
--PHILADELPHIA SERIES: 10-1 L11/6-0 L6 H... 8-0 aft RG vs Giants... DEC: 1-8 favs 8 > pts... 2-8 favs > 7 pts off BB SU wins... 1-6 UNDER after Giants
--Washington SERIES: 3-1 L4... DEC: 11-1-1 dogs off SU loss vs opp w/rev (1-0-1 this year)... DEC: 14-2 < .500 A off SU loss (1-0 this year)... 6-1 A off BB ATS wins... 8-2 bef Giants (0-1 this year)... 1-8-1 vs opp w/rev off DD SU loss (0-1 this year)
--JACKSONVILLE DEC: 12-2 vs opp off BB SU losses (1-0 this year)... 1-11 favs 6 > pts vs opp off SU road loss... 1-6 HF's vs opp in 2nd BB RG's (1-0 this year)... 2-10 Game Fifteen
--San Francisco SERIES: 5-1 L6 A... 8-0 div RD's 9 < pts... 4-0 aft scoring 10 < pts vs opp off SU fav loss... 9-1 A off DD ATS & any SU loss vs div opp (1-0 this year)... 4-1 SU Game Fifteen
--ST. LOUIS 7-0 Last Home Game if .400 >... 2-8 H off DD SU loss vs opp off SUATS loss (1-1 this year)... 1-4 SU Game Fifteen... SPAGNUOLO: 8-1 off SUATS loss vs < .500 opp (3-0 this year)
--Seattle SERIES: 4-1 L5/4-0 L4 A... DEC: 8-2 < .500 dogs < 7 pts (0-1 this year)... 15-3 off BB SU losses (2-0 this year)... 1-4 O/U Game Fifteen
--TAMPA BAY 9-0 H off SUATS loss vs opp off BB SU losses... 8-0 conf favs 4 > pts off SU fav loss... DEC: 7-1 vs opp off DD SU home loss... 2-6 Game Fifteen... MORRIS: 2-11-1 H
--New England SERIES: 6-0 L6 A... 8-1 div RF's 4 > pts... 1-10 L11 .850 >... 2-10 favs 8 > pts off NFC opp... 3-9 UNDER L12 away vs Bills
--BUFFALO 0-12 off SUATS div win vs .500 > div opp... 1-8 H vs div opp off BB fav roles... 1-6 Last Home Game... 1-5 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU win (1-0 this year)... 5-1 O/U Game Fifteen
--NY Jets 7-1 off SU dog win (2-0 this year)... 1-3 O/U Game Fifteen... 4-1 OVER 2nd of BB RG’s
--CHICAGO SERIES: 3-1 L4... 5-0 SU Game Fifteen... 1-4-1 L6 as favs... 6-1 OVER off Monday gm
--Baltimore SERIES: 4-1 L5... 3-1 Game Fifteen... 0-7 A off BB SU wins & scored 30 > pts BB... 1-9 RF's off BB SU wins... HARBAUGH: 8-2 off SU win vs opp off SUATS loss (0-1 this year)
--CLEVELAND 8-1 w/rev vs .600 > div opp off SU win (1-0 this year)... 12-3 aft Bengals (0-1 this year)... 6-2 dogs 6 < pts bef Steelers (0-1 this year)... DEC: 1-8 < .500 vs .600 > opp off non div... 1-6 SU Game Fifteen
--Tennessee SERIES: 3-0 L3 A... DEC: 10-1 off SU div win vs opp off SUATS win... 10-1 dogs off DD ATS win (0-1 this year)... 12-3 dogs vs opp w/rev (1-2 this year)
--KANSAS CITY DEC: 9-2 HF's vs opp off fav role (0-1 this year)... DEC: 8-2 H w/rev off non div (0-1 this year)... 4-1 Game Fifteen... 0-11 HF's 5 > pts off SU dog win... 0-8 off SU road win vs < .500 opp off SU win... 1-5 vs non div opp off DD SU win... HALEY: 2-6 H vs < .500 opp
--Indianapolis 7-0 conf RF's < 7 pts off DD SU win (1-0 this year)... 6-1 O/U Game Fifteen
--OAKLAND SERIES: 5-1 L6/3-0 L3 H... 8-0 H off DD SU win w/rev (2-0 this year)... 7-1 w/rev vs opp off BB SU wins (2-0 this year)... DEC: 1-12 dogs off div vs non div opp (0-1 this year)... 1-6 SU Game Fifteen... CABLE: 2-9 off div
--Houston 13-2 2nd BB RG's (1-0 this year)... 0-4 off div RG vs opp off BB SU losses... 0-6 off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SU loss (0-1 this year)... 2-7 favs vs opp w/rev (1-1 this year)... 4-0 O/U Game Fifteen
--DENVER DEC: 8-1 vs opp off DD div ATS loss... 0-3 SU Game Fifteen
--NY Giants 21-6 away off home vs .500 > foe off ATS win w/ rev... 4-1 O/U Game Fifteen... 1-5 UNDER away vs NFC North
--GREEN BAY 14-4 SU Game Fifteen... 3-11 H vs opp w/rev off SU loss (1-2 this year)... MCCARTHY: 8-1 .500 > dog 2nd BB non div
--San Diego SERIES: 7-3 L10/3-0 L3 A... 3-0 Game Fifteen... DEC: 13-3 A off BB SU wins... 2-5 aft allowing 10 < pts vs non div opp (1-0 this year)
--CINCINNATI 0-3 O/U Game Fifteen... 1-8 H vs non div opp off SU win (1-1 this year)
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*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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• #105 LIONS (4-10) @ #106 DOLPHINS (7-7) - Detroit is 11-3 vs spread this year, 5-2 as road dog, losing away games by 5-14-8-2-16 points; they broke 3-year road losing streak in Tampa last week, now visit Miami squad that is 1-6 at home this year (6-1 on road). Dolphins are 0-5 as home favorite this year; dogs covered all seven of their home games, with Fish scoring 0-10-14 points in last three home tilts. Lions are 2-7 in series, losing all four visits here by average score of 36-20. This is only 4th grass game of year for Lions, who lost by 5-2 points, and won by 3 in OT in three previous games on grass. AFC East home favorites are just 5-9-1 vs spread in non-division games. NFC North road dogs are 9-5-1. Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 Detroit games, 2-6 in last eight Miami games.
• #107 VIKINGS (5-9) @ #108 EAGLES (10-4) - America is clamoring for more Joe Webb, so NBC flexed out of Charger-Bengal game into this, probably hoping Favre would play, which he won’t. Minnesota lost last two games by combined score of 61-17; over last six games, they’ve been outscored 70-27 in second half, a sign of team in tank. Vikings are 1-5-1 vs. spread as an underdog this year. Eagles are off pair of NFC East wins with Cowboy rematch on deck; they’re 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home fave, with home wins by 14-2-10-10 points. NFC East favorites are 7-10 vs spread outside the division, 5-8 at home; NFC North underdogs are 11-7-1, 9-5-1 on road. Nine of last ten Eagle games went over total. Given chance to hammer Vikings, Reid probably will, seeing as they fired his buddy Childress.
• #109 REDSKINS (5-9) @ #110 JAGUARS (8-6) - How will host Jags bounce back from another disappointment at hands of Colts, who now win AFC South by beating Raiders/Titans in last two games? Grossman played well enough in Dallas last week (25-43/286), but odd way they’ve shunned McNabb points to fractured team. Inexperienced Beck expected to see some time at QB here, for Skin squad that is in sandwich between rivals Dallas/Giants, and is 4-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-12-24-3 points (won at Philly/Chicago). Jags are 8-6 despite being favored only four times all year; they’re 5-2 in last seven games, 4-0 vs spread as favorite. Over is 6-2 in Jags’ last eight games, 1-4 in Redskins’ last five. Redskins won three of four series meetings, splitting pair here.
• #111 49ERS (5-9) @ #112 RAMS (6-8) - Niners won last five series games, taking 23-20 OT flagfest (26 accepted penalties) in Candlestick (-6) in Week 10, when Rams couldn’t hold late lead (SF got 1st down after having 3rd-and-32 on game-tying drive). Starting with that game, Rams are 22 for last 85 on 3rd down (25.9%); failure to move chains, improve field position has put too much strain on defense. Rams are 4-3 at home, 2-1 as favorite, but they haven’t scored first half TD in last three games; hopefully return of injured TE Hoomanawanui will help- he was last active in Denver, when they scored 36 points. 49ers are 1-6 in true road games, even losing at 2-14 Carolina. St Louis has thinnest of leads in NFC West; Niners are still alive with win here.
• #113 SEAHAWKS (6-8) @ #114 BUCCANEERS (8-6) - Seattle is still tied for first in NFC West, even though all eight of its losses are by 15+ points; Seahawks are 2-4 as road underdogs this year. Bucs lost three of last four games, with last three decided by total of 8 points- they’re 1-2-2 vs as a favorite. Tampa needs Packers to beat Giants and win here to tie for Wild Card slot; they’re just 3-4 at home, winning by 3-1-15 points. Seattle threw eight INTs in last three games; they’re minus-10 in turnovers last four games. In their last two games, Bucs have no TDs, four FGs on five trips to red zone. Seahawks won four of five visits here; average total in last seven series meetings is 23.7. That said, Seattle’s last seven games this year went over total. NFC West road underdogs are 6-11 outside the division.
• #115 PATRIOTS (10-4) @ #116 BILLS (4-10) - Pats clinch NFC East with win here or Jet loss in Chicago; they’ve won 14 in row vs Buffalo, taking last six here by 14-28-22-46-13-7 points. NE won first meeting this year 38-30 (-14) in Week 3, running ball for 200 yards, but Buffalo averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempts in that game, their 3rd-best mark this year. Bills are 4-2 in last six games after 0-8 start; they’re 6-2-1 vs. spread in last nine games overall, outscoring last five foes 68-20 in second half. Patriots scored 31+ points in each of last six games, winning last three on road by 13-21-29 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Last eight New England games went over total; under is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last eight games.
• #117 JETS (10-4) @ #118 BEARS (10-4) - Rex Ryan against team his dad helped win Super Bowl 25 years ago; Bears clinched division with win Monday night, but are in scrap with Eagles for #2 seed and first-round bye, which is big- they’ve won six of last seven games, but are just 4-3 at home, 0-3 as home favorites. Chicago outscored last three opponents 40-13 in second half. Jets are pretty much locked into Wild Card, but haven’t clinched yet; they’re 6-1 on road, with all seven road games going over total. Chicago is 6-3 in series, 3-2 in games played here. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 10-3. Five of last seven Jet games went over the total, as have last four Chicago games.
• #119 RAVENS (10-4) @ #120 BROWNS (5-9) - Anytime Ravens (formerly Browns) return to Cleveland, there’s venom in air; they beat Cleveland 24-17 (-10.5) in first meeting, despite Browns running ball for 173 yards (2nd-highest total of year), in their 5th straight series loss. Ravens are 7-4 on Lake Erie, winning last two years, 37-27/16-0. Last four Raven games have been very close; they’re 4-3 on road, winning last two away games 37-13/34-28. Last six Cleveland games were all decided by 7 or less points; Browns are 5-6-1 as underdogs, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 2-10-6 points. League-wide, home dogs are 18-12-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-1 in AFC North. Browns’ last three games all stayed under the total.
• #121 TITANS (6-8) @ #122 CHIEFS (9-5) - Road team won last three series games; Chiefs split only two visits here, with last one back in ’04. Titans snapped 6-game skid last week; they’ve lost last three road games by 8-12-20 points, after starting season 3-0 on road. Chiefs got Cassel back under center last week; they’ve won last four games he played, and are 6-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, with wins by 7-21-22-3-18-4 points. KC needs to keep winning to stay step ahead of San Diego in AFC West, while Titans technically are still alive in their division; Fisher is using OC Heimerdinger (cancer) as an inspiration of how not to quit. Despite undergoing chemo, Heimerdinger hasn’t missed one day of work since he was diagnosed with cancer.
• #123 COLTS (8-6) @ #124 RAIDERS (7-7) - Oakland is 5-0 in its division, 2-7 outside it; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Texans by 7, Dolphins by 16. Colts scored 35-30-34 points last three weeks, as prolific Manning continues to amaze; after tossing 11 INTs in 3-game stretch, Colts haven’t turned ball over last two weeks, can now win AFC South if they win this game and beat Titans at home next week. Raiders want to pound ball; they’ve run it for 251-153-264 yards in last three games, scoring average of 32.7 ppg. Colts allowed 24+ points in six of seven road games; they’re 3-4 on road, 1-3-1 as road favorite. AFC West underdogs are 7-11 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-3 at home. AFC South favorites are 9-9-2, 2-1-2 on road. Four of last five Indy games went over the total.
• #125 TEXANS (5-9) @ #126 BRONCOS (3-11) - Both sides sinking here; Texans lost last three games, allowing 33 ppg (gave up 11 TDs on last 30 drives), outscored 65-20 in first half of those games- they’ve lost last five road games. Denver lost last five games (1-4 vs. spread), converting just 10 of last 60 on 3rd down; they’re 2-4 at home, but did score 82 points in last two home games. League-wide, home underdogs in non-divisional games are 18-19-3. Six of last seven Texan games went over total, as did three of last four Bronco games. Houston coach Kubiak came to Texans from Broncos, could he be returning as Denver HC if Houston fires him? First home start for Tebow, who did OK in starting debut last week. Not much to choose from on either side, except maybe the over. Check weather.
• #127 GIANTS (9-5) @ #128 PACKERS (9-5) - Huge game with #6 seed in NFC up for grabs; how do Giants bounce back from last week’s debacle, blowing 31-10 lead at home in last 8:00 in pivotal division rivalry game? First series meeting since Giants won NFC title game in OT here three years ago; road team won last five series games-- Giants won last two visits here. Packers lost last two games, both by 4 points; they’re 5-1 at home, 4-2 as home favorite, winning by 27-2-4-38-18 points (lost to Miami in OT). Giants are 4-2 on road, 2-2 as underdog; all four of their losses are by 7+ points. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Giant games stayed under total. Does Rodgers come back for Packers, and if so, how effective is he?
• #129 CHARGERS (8-6) @ #130 BENGALS (3-11) - San Diego needs two wins and a KC loss to make playoffs; they’ve won six of last seven games, scoring 29+ points in wins- they allowed only one TD on last 18 drives with 10 3/outs. Since halftime of loss to Raiders, they’ve outscored opponents 75-14 in last 10 quarters. Bengals snapped 10-game skid last week, running ball for 188 yards, their most this year by 39 yards. Cincy covered in only two of 11 losses this year, even though six of its 11 losses are by 7 or less points- they’re 3-5 as an underdog, 2-1 at home. AFC West favorites are 10-8, 2-3 on road. AFC North underdogs are 8-9-2. 3-2 at home. Last five Charger games, three of last four Bengal games stayed under total.
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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The Kansas City Chiefs hold a precarious one-game advantage over ‘FAST-CHARGING’ San Diego in the AFC West knowing the Bolts hold the tie-breaker in the event they finish the season with identical records. Hence, look for Arrowhead to become a burial ground the next two weeks. They are 16-7 ATS here during the final four confrontations of the season when hosting opponents off a win. The Titans snapped a 6-game losing skid with its win over the Texans in their Last Home Game last weekend and now take to the road off a three-game homestand.
As our 'AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK’ points out: PLAY AGAINST - Any NFL road team from Game Ten out following three straight home games if they are off a double-digit win and are facing a sub .690 non-division opponent. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 17-3-2 (85%). This is not a good role for teams taking to the highway, especially ones that have been outstatted in six of their previous seven affairs. "Our Rock-Solid database is in a holiday spirit and lends this Christmas gift: Game Fifteen outfits off a SU underdog victory are a 'SENSATIONAL' 34-9 ATS (79.1%) at home since 1980 when seeking revenge!"
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• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
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Colts control their playoff destiny following last weekend’s victory over the Jaguars and a win here today puts them on firm footing. The problem, though, is they’ve dropped four straight tussles in this series (0-3-1 ATS) and they travel as road favorites with the leagues’ 2nd worst rush defense (4.7 DYPR). Not to mention they check in as our 'NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK' which tells us to: PLAY ON - Any NFL Game Fifteen Home underdog of 4 or less points off a win in its Last Home Game of the season. ATS W-L Record 18-4-1, (81.8%) Since 1980.
That’s clearly a flag-raiser considering the Raiders own the NFL’s best ground attack (4.9 OYPR). Coupled with Oakland’s 7-1 ATS mark as a home underdog with revenge, and its 9-2 ATS record at home with revenge off a double-digit win, it makes for a precarious situation, to say the least. "So does Peyton’s 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS career mark as a road favorite with a winning record against AFC West opposition!"
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
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Who would have believed that Tampa would own a winning record playing in the competitive NFC South while the Seahawks would be below sea level in the laughable NFC West! What we’re really not sure of, though, is which Seattle or Tampa outfit will show up this afternoon in the Big Sombrero. Thus, we’ll turn to our Stat/Systems Sports database for some answers and it clearly has us heading west. For starters, the Seahawks are a perfect 4-0 ATS on this field. Seattle is also at its best on the road off a loss this year, posting a 2-0 SU and ATS record. The coffee crew is also an 'INCREDIBLE' 15-5 SU and 16-3-1 ATS (84.2%) off back-to-back losses versus a foe off a SU loss. Meanwhile, the Bucs are just 1-8 SU and ATS in Last Home Games since 2001. And like the aforementioned 'Tuff Tony Sparano (above), it’s best to back the visitor this time of year in scuffles involving Tampa HC Raheem Morris. "Under Morris, the host in Buccaneers’ encounters is 0-5-1 ATS in the final quarter of the season!"
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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Don’t look now but the (5-9) 49ers are just two victories and a Seattle loss this weekend from claiming the NFC West title. With Jacksonville, San Diego, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and the Giants fighting for their playoff lives at 8-6 or better, it just doesn’t seem fair. (Maybe it’s time to get the BCS involved!) One person who will be heavily involved in today’s outcome is San Fran HC Mike Singletary and we’ll draw on Iron Mike’s 10-4-2 ATS log as an underdog, including 6-0-1 ATS off a loss. It’s also hard to look past Frisco’s 'AMAZING’ 8-0 ATS mark as a division road dog of 9 or less points. One number that won’t get by us here this afternoon is Louie’s 'BRUTAL' 0-14 SU and 4-10 ATS record in the final four confrontations of the season since 2006, or its 3-14 ATS log as division favorites since 2003. "Slinging Sam Bradford and his baby-faced assassins have certainly been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2010 season but their 3-16 SU and ATS mark at home off a double-digit loss versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS versus a division opponent, suggests they’re a year away!"
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As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** DETROIT @ MIAMI (-3.5, O/U 41.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: You get the feeling that Detroit’s enjoying Florida more than the Dolphins. A week ago, the Lions upset the Bucs in Tampa, snapping a 26-game road losing streak. Meanwhile, the Dolphins dropped a home game to the Bills to drop to 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS at home this year. Miami continues to struggle on offense, while kicker Dan Carpenter went 0-for-4 (granted, they were all 48 and beyond) on field goal attempts. The Lions have looked just fine under third-string quarterback Drew Stanton. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Miami is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. Detroit (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season.
--MIAMI is 13-27 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
--DETROIT is 4-15 ATS away off a upset win as an underdog since 1992.
--DETROIT is 5-17 ATS away after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
--DETROIT is 6-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, in the second half of the season.
(32-10 since 1983.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA (-14.5, O/U 41.5 ) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Eagles carry some momentum from their superb second half against the Giants, and they can put away the NFC East with a victory against a Vikings team that’s limping to the finish line. There’s no telling whether Brett Favre or Joe Webb (or Patrick Ramsey) will be under center for the Vikes. Whoever it is will have their hands full against the blitz happy Eagles. Philly’s speedy receiving corps also matches up particularly well against Minnesota’s cornerbacks. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Philadelphia is 2-0 ATS (2-0 SU) vs. Minnesota (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--PHILA is 8-0 ATS after road game where both teams scored 24+ points over L3 seasons.
--PHILA is 9-1 OVER after the first month of the season this season.
--PHILA is 13-2 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 13-2 OVER away vs. teams scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 21-7 OVER away vs. teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 22-8 OVER vs. teams scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Any team vs the 1rst half line - after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points.
(40-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE (-7, O/U 46.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Rex Grossman Experience is likely to continue in Jacksonville, a second straight soft pass defense for the maligned vet (he threw for 322 yards and 4 TDs, as well as 2 INTs, in Dallas last week). After all sorts of problems at home last season, the Jags are 5-2 SU and ATS at EverBank Field, including three straight wins. They have the offensive diversity to beat a weak Redskins defense that could be without top pass rusher Brian Orakpo. Series History - Last 5 seasons: Jacksonville is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Washington (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 9-2 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
--JACKSONVILLE is 44-21 OVER after having won 4 or 5 out of last 6 games since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 32-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 55-35 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS after gaining 75 or less rush yards last game over L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS (-3, O/U 39) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Amazingly, this game could decide who gets a home playoff game. The Niners and Rams looked like teams with losing records last week, each getting pasted by an AFC West team. They went to overtime in their first meeting, a seesaw battle in San Fran where the Niners outgained the Rams by nearly 100 yards. San Francisco is unsettled under quarterback yet again, as Mike Singletary is unlikely to announce a starter between Alex and Troy Smith until late in the week. San Fran is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road. Series History - Last 5 seasons: ST Louis is 3-8 ATS (2-9 SU) vs. San Francisco (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--ST LOUIS is 1-13 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 8-26 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
--SAN FRAN is 9-1 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 10-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 6-0 ATS in dome games over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Road teams - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY (-6, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Both these teams are still in the playoff hunt. Tampa has been the superior team this year, but they’re coming off a bad home loss to Detroit and have been up and down at home all season. They’re just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS at home. Seattle is as bad as ever of late, and now they’re undecided at QB after another horrible performance by Matt Hasselbeck. They do match up well defensively with Tampa, as Brandon Mebane and Colin Cole anchor a strong run D. Seattle is 3-12 SU and ATS on the road over the past two years. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Tampa Bay is 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) vs. Seattle (0-2 ATS, 1-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--TAMPA is 2-11 ATS in home lined games over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 1-10 ATS at home when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 2-11 ATS at home in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 2-11 ATS after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.
--SEATTLE is 7-0 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points this season.
--SEATTLE is 7-0 OVER in the second half of the season this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Home favorites - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(32-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** NEW ENGLAND (-7.5, O/U 44) @ BUFFALO ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Patriots got a bit of a wake up call last week against the shorthanded Packers, just in time for another trap game in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t beaten New England since Week 1 of the 2003 season, but they’ve managed to go 2-0-1 ATS in their past three games against the Pats. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be able to take advantage of a young Patriots defense that hasn’t completely gelled. The Bills also have a decent enough secondary to at least hang on against Tom Brady and Company. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Buffalo is 4-6 ATS (0-11 SU) vs. New England (0-4 ATS, 0-5 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--BUFFALO is 29-8 ATS after a win by 3 or less points since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 14-2 OVER at home vs. teams w/ TO margin of +1/game or better since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 15-4 OVER after covering the spread in 4 out of last 5 games since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 OVER off 1 or more straight overs this season.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER after gaining 6+ yds/play in their previous game this year.
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER after having won 5 or 6 out of last 7 games this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** NY JETS @ CHICAGO (-1, O/U 36.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Jets are looking to make it two straight on the road over winning teams. Gang Green recovered a little bit of momentum thanks to their special teams last week. Brad Smith opened the game with a kickoff return touchdown, though the Jets offense has scored just one offensive touchdown since Thanksgiving. The Bears don’t have the kind of offense to take on the Jets defense. They’ve scored just 45 points in three games against AFC East opponents this year. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Chicago is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. NY Jets (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--CHICAGO is 16-4 UNDER vs. teams averaging 24+ yds/KO return in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 47-28 UNDER in non-conference games since 1992.
--Lovie Smith is 10-3 ATS vs. teams averaging 32+ possession min/gm as coach of CHICAGO.
--NY JETS are 8-1 ATS away in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons.
--NY JETS are 6-0 OVER away vs. defenses allowing comp. pct. of 61% or worse this year.
--NY JETS are 54-32 UNDER after failing to cover in 2 out of last 3 games since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%),in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** BALTIMORE (-3, O/U 39) @ CLEVELAND ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The latest installment of the Modell Bowl will feature the Ravens as favorites again. Baltimore has won the past five match-ups with the Browns, but their September meeting in Cleveland was an adventure. The game was the coming out party for Peyton Hillis, and the Ravens just held on for a 24-17 win. They won’t be taken by surprise by Hillis this time, and Cleveland doesn’t have the perimeter threats to take advantage of Baltimore’s thin secondary (of Colt McCoy’s 243 yards in Cincinnati last week, only 99 went to WRs). Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cleveland is 6-5 ATS (3-8 SU) vs. Baltimore (3-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 52-33 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
--CLEVELAND is 8-1 UNDER after failing to cover in 3 out of last 4 games over L3 seasons.
--Eric Mangini is 14-4 UNDER in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
--BALTIMORE is 11-2 ATS when playing team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 26-13 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 40-24 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off a road loss, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY (-4.5, O/U 42.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Both these teams seem to be getting back on track. The Titans snapped a six-game losing streak against Houston, and have won two in a row ATS. They’ve played much better since Kerry Collins returned to the lineup. The Chiefs got back to business with Matt Cassel back under center in St. Louis, and they return home where they’re 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS this season. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Kansas City is 0-2 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. Tennessee (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--K.C. is 9-1 ATS vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the L3 seasons.
--K.C. is 32-50 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
--K.C. is 22-10 OVER vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 13-2 ATS away off a home win against a division rival since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 19-6 ATS after failing to cover in 5 or 6 out of last 7 games since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 19-7 ATS off a home win against a division rival since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games.
(52-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +28.9 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** INDIANAPOLIS (-3, O/U 47) @ OAKLAND ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Colts can move closer to clinching the AFC South, but they’re in for a major test in Oakland. The Raiders are 5-2 SU at home this year and have had one of the best pass defenses in the league when Nnamdi Asomugha has been healthy. With the exception of a couple of big Donald Brown runs last week, Indy hasn’t had much of a running game all year. The Colts have also been susceptible against the run, and Oakland has one of the strongest running games in the NFL. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Oakland is 1-0 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Indianapolis (1-0 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--OAKLAND is 29-60 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS at home after gaining 6.5+ yards/play in previous game since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS at home after gaining 7+ yards/play in previous game since 1992.
--INDY is 9-1 ATS vs. teams averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the L2 seasons.
--INDY is 14-3 ATS away after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.
--INDY is 16-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line - off a home win against a division rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more.
(23-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** HOUSTON (-3, O/U 48.5) @ DENVER ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: It could be a second straight start for Tim Tebow, who impressed with his legs but wasn’t given much of a chance with his arm last week in Oakland. Denver’s defense might not give them much of a chance, as they’ve allowed 82 points in two games under Eric Studesville and are 2-4 SU and ATS at home this year. The Texans looked deflated in losing in Tennessee last week, and now top rusher Arian Foster could miss this game with an ankle injury. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Denver is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. Houston (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--DENVER is 2-16 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 3-19 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 0-9 ATS at home against a team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS after the first month of the season this season.
--HOUSTON is 9-0 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points over the L3 seasons.
--HOUSTON is 6-0 OVER away when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(37-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.1%, +29.3 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY (-3, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Packers and Giants are feeling much different after Week 15 losses. The Giants choked away a key game against Philly with a couple of major special teams gaffes and a failure in all phases of the game. They have been good on the road this year, winning four of their past five SU and ATS. Green Bay was close with New England with back-up QB Matt Flynn under center (and looking shaky on many throws). There’s a good chance they’ll have Aaron Rodgers back. They’re 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 home games. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Green Bay is 1-1 ATS (1-1 SU) vs. NY Giants (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--GREEN BAY is 46-29 ATS vs. teams w/ winning record in 2nd half of season since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS at home vs. teams allowing >= 12 yards per return since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 45-26 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 19-5 ATS after game where 60+ total points were scored since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 15-4 ATS away against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 27-11 ATS away vs. teams with a comp. pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(35-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** SAN DIEGO (-7, O/U 44) @ CINCINNATI ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Chargers have a chance to keep rolling when they visit Cincinnati. The Bengals beat Cleveland at home this week, but lost top receiver Terrell Owens to a season-ending knee injury. They’ll be facing a San Diego D that has been outstanding against the run and the pass this year, and has an extra three days of rest. The Chargers have let a few games slip away because of sloppy play and special teams mistakes, but the Bengals are the sloppiest, most undisciplined team in the league. They’re unlikely to catch the Bolts napping. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cincinnati is 1-1 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. San Diego (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--CINCINNATI is 11-24 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 20-8 OVER at home vs. teams allowing <=4.75 yards/play since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 16-5 OVER vs. teams allowing <=4.75 yds/play in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 21-6 ATS after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-8 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(35-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*)
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• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Against the Spread Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________
4* WASHINGTON +7 - (83.3%)
4* SAN FRANCISCO +3 - (82.9%)
4* TENNESSEE +4.5 - (82.4%)
3* INDIANAPOLIS -3 - (76.9%)
3* DENVER +3 - (73.9%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (12-18 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average score in these games was: Team 18.7, Opponent 17.9 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (36.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (49-18).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (ST LOUIS) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(29-6 since 1983.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (22-14)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8
The average score in these games was: Team 20.2, Opponent 18.4 (Average point differential = +1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.
(28-6 since 1983.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-18)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 17, Opponent 19.5 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (44.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) - with a poor defense - allowing 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.
(30-9 since 1983.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-7)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.4
The average score in these games was: Team 29.8, Opponent 19 (Average point differential = +10.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (48.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(51-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +31.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (27-42 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.3
The average score in these games was: Team 18.7, Opponent 22.5 (Average point differential = -3.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (43.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-15).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (77-44).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (171-155).
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• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Over/Under Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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5* NY GIANTS/GREEN BAY UNDER 43.5 - (83.3%)
4* SAN FRANCISCO/ST LOUIS OVER 39 - (82.8%)
4* WASHINGTON/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 46.5 - (81.6%)
4* NEW ENGLAND/BUFFALO UNDER 44 - (80.0%)
4* HOUSTON/DENVER OVER 48.5 - (79.5%)
3* SAN DIEGO/CINCINNATI OVER 44 - (78.6%)
3* INDIANAPOLIS/OAKLAND UNDER 47 - (78.0%)
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - off 2 consecutive road losses, with a winning record on the season.
(25-5 since 1983.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.8
The average score in these games was: Team 22.8, Opponent 16.4 (Total points scored = 39.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game.
(24-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39
The average score in these games was: Team 22.9, Opponent 23.8 (Total points scored = 46.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (55.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (54-40).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.
(31-7 since 1983.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 44.9
The average score in these games was: Team 22.1, Opponent 17.6 (Total points scored = 39.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (45.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog.
(32-8 since 1983.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.5
The average score in these games was: Team 19.7, Opponent 18.7 (Total points scored = 38.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (HOUSTON) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(31-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 43.2
The average score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 25.2 (Total points scored = 50.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (53.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-39).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games.
(33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.2
The average score in these games was: Team 28.4, Opponent 26.9 (Total points scored = 55.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 20 (48.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - excellent rushing team (>=150 RY/G) against a poor rushing defense (125-150 RY/G) after 8+ games, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game.
(32-9 since 1983.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 42.6
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 18 (Total points scored = 37.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (44.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
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•Thanks Stat/Systems. I have been capping for 4 yrs now and a friend from another forum showed me some of the info in your daily report and I knew I had to sign up. Great stuff. ~ Cody - Cowpens, SC
•I can't believe all of the things your Stat/Sheets track, plus it's all loaded on one page. To call it the Ultimate Sports Tipsheet is an understatement. Goodbye Gold Sheet, hello Stat/Systems Sports! ~ Jason - Beaverton, OR
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* DENVER +1.5 - (83.9%)
4* KANSAS CITY -2.5 - (80.6%)
3* NEW ENGLAND -4 - (78.7%)
3* TAMPA BAY -3 - (78.6%)
3* ST LOUIS -1.5 - (77.8%)
3* GREEN BAY -1.5 - (77.8%)
3* JACKSONVILLE -3.5 - (74.3%)
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.9, Opponent 7.8 (Average first half point differential = +5.1)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (86-50).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) after 8 or more games, after allowing 14 points or less last game.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.7, Opponent 5.9 (Average first half point differential = +9.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (BUFFALO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a upset win as an underdog.
(37-10 since 1983.) (78.7%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.5, Opponent 6.4 (Average first half point differential = +8.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SEATTLE) - off 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent off 1 or more consecutive unders.
(33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14, Opponent 5.6 (Average first half point differential = +8.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - a poor offensive team (<=18 PPG) against an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 9 points or less last game.
(28-8 since 1983.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.2, Opponent 9 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NY GIANTS) - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(35-10 since 1983.) (77.8%, +24 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.1, Opponent 5.7 (Average first half point differential = +9.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (JACKSONVILLE) - good rushing team (>=4.5 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR) after 8+ games.
(55-19 since 1983.) (74.3%, +34.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16, Opponent 7.9 (Average first half point differential = +8.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-12).
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* SAN DIEGO/CINCINNATI OVER 22 - (88.9%)
4* SEATTLE/TAMPA BAY OVER 22 - (85.7%)
4* TENNESSEE/KANSAS CITY OVER 21.5 - (85.7%)
4* HOUSTON/DENVER OVER 24.5 - (85.7%)
4* NY GIANTS/GREEN BAY OVER 21.5 - (85.7%)
3* NY JETS/CHICAGO OVER 18.5 - (78.1%)
3* BALTIMORE/CLEVELAND OVER 19.5 - (72.5%)
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (SAN DIEGO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(24-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.2, Opponent 10.7 (Total first half points scored = 26.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (43-25).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (SEATTLE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (TENNESSEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NY GIANTS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 14.2 (Total first half points scored = 27.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-21).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (66-43).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CHICAGO) - off 3 or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG).
(25-7 since 1983.) (78.1%, +17.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 10.3 (Total first half points scored = 23.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (BALTIMORE) - good passing team (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(50-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.1, Opponent 12.2 (Total first half points scored = 26.3)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (98-62).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
Back in the early 80's, Stan the Man helped assemble one of the most powerful football and basketball databases in the nation. This incredible piece of software holds over 100 profitable situations with ATS records topping 90 percent.
Located on the East Coast just a few miles from the University of Seton Hall, Stan the Man is tuned into the Pirates as well as the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conferences. College Football, Major League Baseball as well as the NBA and NFL are considered his strengths. But keep in mind a profitable run can happen at any time in any sport when Stan gets into one of his capping zones!
Vince Lombardi, one of the greatest football coaches ever, once said, "They say that the Harder you Work, the Luckier you get" and Stan the Man is Living Proof! When you do business with Stan Szumera you can expect three things: experience, professionalism and effort, “Enjoy and the best of luck” –Stan!
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